Once an electoral candidate is in the lead, the public views them as the winner. If the candidate then loses, fraud seems a likely explanation, and even the winner’s supporters might be inclined to be suspicious about the final result. This is because of the cumulative redundancy bias (CRB).



Summary

The cumulative redundancy bias (CRB) explains why election losses by frontrunners often spark suspicion of fraud. Once a candidate leads, public perception solidifies them as the presumptive winner. This creates a strong expectation of victory. Consequently, an unexpected loss violates this established narrative, making fraud a readily accepted explanation. Even the victor’s supporters might harbor doubts, as the unexpected result clashes with the previously perceived “inevitable” outcome fueled by the CRB. The initial lead creates a cognitive bias, making the final loss seem improbable and, therefore, potentially illegitimate.

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